diff --git a/common/changes/@microsoft/rush/fix-autoinstaller-ensure-folder_2026-03-12-21-35.json b/common/changes/@microsoft/rush/fix-autoinstaller-ensure-folder_2026-03-12-21-35.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..cb40bf938b4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/common/changes/@microsoft/rush/fix-autoinstaller-ensure-folder_2026-03-12-21-35.json
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "changes": [
+    {
+      "comment": "Fix a recent regression that sometimes produced ENOENT errors when installing autoinstallers",
+      "type": "patch",
+      "packageName": "@microsoft/rush"
+    }
+  ],
+  "packageName": "@microsoft/rush",
+  "email": "rushbot@users.noreply.github.com"
+}
diff --git a/common/config/rush/version-policies.json b/common/config/rush/version-policies.json
index 1f91d15712e..14cc818237e 100644
--- a/common/config/rush/version-policies.json
+++ b/common/config/rush/version-policies.json
@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@
     "policyName": "rush",
     "definitionName": "lockStepVersion",
     "version": "5.170.0",
-    "nextBump": "minor",
+    "nextBump": "patch",
     "mainProject": "@microsoft/rush"
   }
 ]
diff --git a/libraries/rush-lib/src/pluginFramework/PluginLoader/AutoinstallerPluginLoader.ts b/libraries/rush-lib/src/pluginFramework/PluginLoader/AutoinstallerPluginLoader.ts
index d2587736d94..7528fe72ea7 100644
--- a/libraries/rush-lib/src/pluginFramework/PluginLoader/AutoinstallerPluginLoader.ts
+++ b/libraries/rush-lib/src/pluginFramework/PluginLoader/AutoinstallerPluginLoader.ts
@@ -73,7 +73,8 @@ export class AutoinstallerPluginLoader extends PluginLoaderBase<IRushPluginConfi
     // Use read+write instead of copy to ensure line endings are normalized
     const manifestContent: string = FileSystem.readFile(manifestPath);
     FileSystem.writeFile(destinationManifestPath, manifestContent, {
-      convertLineEndings: NewlineKind.Lf
+      convertLineEndings: NewlineKind.Lf,
+      ensureFolderExists: true
     });
     // Make permission consistent since it will be committed to Git
     FileSystem.changePosixModeBits(
@@ -105,7 +106,8 @@ export class AutoinstallerPluginLoader extends PluginLoaderBase<IRushPluginConfi
       // Use read+write instead of copy to ensure line endings are normalized
       const commandLineContent: string = FileSystem.readFile(commandLineJsonFullFilePath);
       FileSystem.writeFile(destinationCommandLineJsonFilePath, commandLineContent, {
-        convertLineEndings: NewlineKind.Lf
+        convertLineEndings: NewlineKind.Lf,
+        ensureFolderExists: true
       });
       // Make permission consistent since it will be committed to Git
       FileSystem.changePosixModeBits(