Repository navigation
Refresh OBR pages and paper: current figures, closure wording, anchored reform scoring - #197
Merged
Merged
Conversation
…apshot Re-run fig_anchored.py and fig_free_running.py against obr-macroeconomic-model cde7302 (PR #41, eight recovered ONS series). Anchored MAPE is now 0.30% GDP / 0.49% consumption; free-running 4.32% / 7.22%. The anchored chart's frame is widened to +1.2pp, since consumption now exceeds 1% in 2027Q3-Q4, and its description now says the CI gate tests the MAPE, not single quarters. Transcribed scorecard values in chart_data.json follow docs/calibration_scorecard.md. The November-vintage comparison and outturn figures are left unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Anchored fit 0.30% / 0.49%, free-running 4.32% / 7.22%, company profits 82.77%, current account 3.02% of GDP, held add-factors 0.27% / 0.19%, 355 ONS series, anchored GDP to 2031Q1 0.67%. The free-running gap is described as the emulator's closure swap plus unpublished inputs, not OBR forecast error, since GDP is exogenous in the OBR's published model. The closure swap is described correctly (DINV equation removed and held at EFO, GDP identity added). Step 1 now says about 79 of the 372 equations are skipped at solve time and that business investment uses a reconstructed, commented-out equation. The first-year sign-flip caveat is removed (fixed upstream in PR #41). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…text Current-vintage notes, the raw scorecard, appendix table, comparison panel D, held-add-factor paragraph and limitations now carry the PR #41 figures, with the superseded values recorded. Method and model sections describe the closure swap correctly and note the skipped equations. main.pdf is not rebuilt. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Household multiplier for 1p on the basic rate is now about 0.15 in year one rising to 0.34 by quarter 12 (was ~0.35 by the end of a five-year window). Bank Rate +100bp now lowers GDP (-121/-431/-482/-416 £m at q1/4/8/12; a cut raises it by 126-579); the old ninety-times asymmetry was a free-running artefact. Describe the mechanism: anchoring add-factors held fixed in both the baseline and shocked run, cancelling in the deviation. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Regenerate fig_reform against the anchored reform baseline: 2027Q4 effect -0.057% -> -0.061%, implied tax multiplier 0.086 -> 0.089 on impact and 0.250 -> 0.266 by 2027Q4, 0.34 at quarter 12. Appendix now says anchoring residuals are held fixed in both runs of a reform pair. Limitations record the 20-quarter adapter path. main.pdf not rebuilt. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
|
The latest updates on your projects. Learn more about Vercel for GitHub.
|
vahid-ahmadi
marked this pull request as ready for review
October 8, 2026 12:03
This branch was successfully deployed
This file contains hidden or bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.This suggestion is invalid because no changes were made to the code.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is closed.Suggestions cannot be applied while viewing a subset of changes.Only one suggestion per line can be applied in a batch.Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.Applying suggestions on deleted lines is not supported.You must change the existing code in this line in order to create a valid suggestion.Outdated suggestions cannot be applied.This suggestion has been applied or marked resolved.Suggestions cannot be applied from pending reviews.Suggestions cannot be applied on multi-line comments.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is queued to merge.Suggestion cannot be applied right now. Please check back later.
Summary
fix/reform-anchoring-and-stale-figures): household multiplier ~0.15 year one → ~0.34 by q12; Bank Rate row now "sign right, scale untested".Before merge
papers/obr-macro/main.pdfnot rebuilt.fig_outturn.pymultiplier chart not regenerated (would overwrite November-vintage outturn data).Tests: site
--checkscripts, site_nav, site_contract, root pytest (1564) and integration pytest (295) pass.🤖 Generated with Claude Code